* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 05/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 28 37 47 55 62 67 69 74 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 28 37 47 55 62 67 69 74 75 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 26 28 31 35 39 46 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 7 11 12 13 14 17 16 19 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 7 4 0 -2 -6 -5 -3 -7 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 78 91 118 91 85 118 107 103 88 69 66 76 103 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.4 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 162 163 165 167 168 165 164 163 163 168 171 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.8 -53.0 -53.8 -52.7 -53.6 -52.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 77 78 76 75 73 77 79 80 81 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 12 11 11 11 9 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 45 49 53 63 58 58 49 45 30 34 42 200 MB DIV 88 102 113 126 116 132 131 125 154 171 181 164 95 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 470 492 526 567 573 571 621 673 747 797 786 643 466 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.5 9.0 9.1 9.0 8.4 7.8 7.7 8.8 10.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.5 89.8 90.2 90.7 91.3 92.6 94.1 95.0 95.3 95.1 94.6 93.9 93.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 7 6 3 3 4 4 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 12 15 21 27 32 36 38 37 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 17. 27. 35. 42. 47. 49. 54. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.9 89.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.98 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 8.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.08 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 18.1% 9.9% 2.4% 1.0% 14.6% 19.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 6.0% 3.3% 0.8% 0.3% 4.9% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##