* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902017 05/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 57 66 74 80 86 93 92 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 57 66 74 80 86 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 40 45 52 61 72 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 19 19 24 16 16 15 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 3 5 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -3 5 5 SHEAR DIR 127 98 78 69 76 77 89 91 65 50 63 82 124 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.2 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 160 160 161 161 161 163 163 164 159 171 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.7 -52.9 -53.8 -52.7 -53.5 -52.4 -53.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 9 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 78 80 80 78 77 83 81 78 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 16 19 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 47 49 46 47 51 54 64 64 87 93 90 200 MB DIV 105 114 117 121 136 155 162 165 195 209 213 195 234 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 443 489 527 575 625 665 699 756 779 710 527 361 104 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.8 6.4 7.3 9.8 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.7 90.1 90.6 91.1 92.0 92.6 92.7 92.1 91.1 89.7 89.2 90.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 4 2 2 5 7 10 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 18 25 30 37 40 34 15 5 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 14. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 37. 46. 54. 60. 66. 73. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.9 89.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.5% 49.7% 35.6% 29.2% 22.6% 47.4% 58.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 1.1% Consensus: 3.7% 18.2% 12.5% 9.9% 7.6% 16.2% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##