* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 22 22 25 28 28 31 33 36 39 43 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 22 22 25 28 28 31 33 36 39 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 17 17 17 17 18 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 17 17 14 7 9 7 9 3 3 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 -4 -6 0 -4 -3 -3 -9 -6 SHEAR DIR 263 270 276 276 284 227 211 200 219 189 33 80 75 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 151 151 148 147 145 145 143 140 137 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 59 58 60 64 68 71 72 74 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 6 2 -12 -16 -22 -23 -24 -14 2 11 -3 200 MB DIV 26 44 52 70 64 81 70 88 78 62 52 56 62 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1186 1162 1124 1081 1044 1000 1008 1036 1159 1313 1424 1439 1383 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.2 16.3 15.7 14.9 14.3 14.4 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 115.8 115.8 115.7 115.7 116.0 116.5 117.0 118.0 119.2 120.1 120.5 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 7 6 3 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 22 24 26 28 27 25 26 20 13 11 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. 0. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 115.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.29 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.03 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 121.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.69 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 5.6% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##