* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 23 29 33 35 39 44 49 51 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 23 29 33 35 39 44 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 20 21 24 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 21 23 20 13 4 8 5 1 7 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 3 -1 0 -4 -2 1 -4 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 261 267 266 274 276 287 176 166 197 88 55 66 95 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 151 151 149 149 150 149 146 143 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 56 59 58 58 60 61 64 65 67 67 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 28 27 29 19 0 -23 -35 -34 -37 -27 -16 -20 200 MB DIV 36 33 19 34 44 61 65 52 56 31 20 6 13 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1269 1270 1257 1223 1173 1093 1038 1070 1143 1318 1524 1681 1744 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.4 15.4 15.1 14.1 13.1 12.5 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.2 116.3 116.2 116.0 115.9 115.9 116.4 117.1 118.4 120.1 121.6 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 4 4 4 2 3 6 9 9 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 18 21 26 29 30 30 22 12 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 8. 10. 14. 19. 24. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 116.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 121.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.34 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 30.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.2% 5.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##