* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 20 20 19 11 5 6 4 4 4 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 -2 -4 0 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 248 257 268 268 278 281 289 135 140 149 103 79 81 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 149 149 149 150 150 150 151 148 144 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 57 58 61 60 63 61 63 64 68 68 70 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 21 27 25 27 13 -8 -19 -7 -12 -15 -3 -6 200 MB DIV 47 50 41 18 39 45 60 82 54 42 15 5 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1244 1274 1284 1275 1240 1181 1119 1126 1178 1312 1469 1589 1625 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.5 14.4 13.7 12.9 12.4 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.9 116.1 116.1 116.0 115.8 115.7 116.0 116.7 117.8 119.1 120.2 120.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 1 2 3 3 2 2 5 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 17 17 18 20 23 23 24 19 14 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -9. -3. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 115.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##