* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 29 28 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 29 28 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 27 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 27 30 29 27 30 27 28 26 34 43 50 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 3 1 1 3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 241 245 246 248 257 266 273 274 261 253 250 263 268 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.7 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 150 151 150 147 140 129 120 113 106 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 60 61 61 62 58 58 51 45 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 23 29 39 26 10 -3 -14 -32 -28 -46 -54 200 MB DIV 74 64 61 54 47 27 22 17 65 45 21 23 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 1 6 4 9 5 LAND (KM) 1147 1146 1126 1116 1096 1017 935 851 805 749 662 618 554 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.9 15.8 17.0 18.2 19.5 20.7 21.8 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 114.7 114.7 114.7 114.7 114.7 114.8 115.2 115.9 116.8 117.0 117.4 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 3 5 5 6 7 7 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 26 26 26 25 21 18 13 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -12. -15. -20. -26. -29. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 114.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% Consensus: 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##