* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 32 31 29 26 25 24 25 26 25 26 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 32 31 29 26 25 24 25 26 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 29 26 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 21 25 25 25 22 19 12 11 13 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 0 0 5 7 2 -2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 241 244 247 247 249 259 273 280 272 235 229 255 257 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.9 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 148 149 150 151 151 149 147 141 133 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 57 60 64 63 62 60 61 61 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 27 25 25 29 31 16 0 -25 -34 -36 -40 -32 200 MB DIV 76 72 66 63 49 13 34 18 36 51 34 33 56 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1167 1176 1176 1162 1147 1087 998 933 891 929 1028 1156 1322 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.8 15.6 16.4 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 114.7 114.7 114.6 114.5 114.3 114.1 114.4 115.0 116.2 117.8 119.8 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 4 4 5 5 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 26 27 28 31 29 23 19 22 17 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -12. -12. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 114.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.74 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% 4.1% Consensus: 2.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##