* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 29 28 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 24 26 28 27 32 36 36 43 59 58 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 8 7 2 -1 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 248 240 243 248 245 257 266 286 281 263 258 269 270 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 27.8 26.5 24.8 23.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 148 148 150 152 151 142 130 113 101 125 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.8 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 56 56 62 59 57 53 53 53 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 6 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 21 31 23 20 35 14 9 -11 -21 -39 -58 -72 200 MB DIV 47 63 69 57 53 42 24 15 0 30 24 -7 -28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 4 5 12 1 -8 LAND (KM) 1155 1149 1149 1134 1120 1060 963 877 797 670 449 161 -22 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 14.1 15.1 16.3 18.0 20.1 22.9 24.9 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.3 114.3 114.2 114.1 113.9 114.0 114.6 115.6 116.4 116.2 113.9 111.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 2 4 6 8 11 12 16 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 30 32 34 35 26 18 13 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -23. -29. -37. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -12. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -22. -28. -36. -41. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 114.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.22 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##