* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 22 26 27 27 33 35 36 37 51 63 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 1 4 2 4 7 4 4 -8 -5 SHEAR DIR 256 246 239 240 247 242 275 279 283 264 254 262 273 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.1 25.8 23.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 147 148 149 151 151 147 135 123 101 106 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 56 56 57 57 61 62 57 53 51 51 48 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 24 35 25 36 32 14 -5 -22 -48 -60 -68 200 MB DIV 32 44 63 77 72 54 15 8 0 17 29 -5 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 4 6 6 -7 LAND (KM) 1151 1134 1134 1120 1120 1075 1003 904 818 724 556 296 106 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.6 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.9 17.3 19.2 21.5 24.0 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.2 114.2 114.1 114.1 114.0 114.0 114.4 115.1 115.9 116.4 115.1 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 32 34 34 35 30 20 16 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -22. -28. -34. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -13. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -24. -31. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 114.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 135.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##