* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 22 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 22 22 25 28 27 34 38 37 42 60 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 5 5 5 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 265 254 246 239 240 247 260 274 284 274 259 259 270 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 27.8 26.6 24.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 148 148 149 151 152 151 142 130 113 101 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 56 57 58 62 58 56 51 52 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 20 23 33 24 37 18 8 -15 -34 -61 -60 200 MB DIV 29 32 44 63 77 65 53 18 9 10 36 30 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 4 11 2 LAND (KM) 1161 1145 1134 1130 1122 1108 1042 948 847 759 634 428 183 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.6 14.2 15.2 16.5 18.2 20.3 22.8 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.2 114.2 114.1 113.9 113.8 113.7 113.9 114.4 115.3 116.1 115.9 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 2 4 6 8 10 12 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 32 34 37 38 37 26 17 11 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -14. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -21. -25. -32. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 114.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 136.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##