* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 29 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 23 24 27 26 37 39 38 36 47 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 0 2 2 7 4 2 3 3 4 -5 SHEAR DIR 261 261 254 251 239 254 252 282 288 288 271 258 252 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 27.9 26.7 25.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 148 147 150 151 151 149 142 131 116 93 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -54.1 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 55 55 55 57 57 53 51 51 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 6 20 20 25 34 30 52 28 4 -8 -41 -65 -64 200 MB DIV 24 46 51 57 78 75 52 8 -7 -15 37 63 48 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 LAND (KM) 1161 1128 1108 1098 1087 1067 1007 938 867 813 736 620 312 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.8 19.5 21.9 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 114.3 114.3 114.3 114.3 114.3 114.3 114.5 114.9 115.6 116.6 117.5 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 1 0 2 3 5 6 8 11 15 19 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 34 34 33 33 32 27 20 15 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -20. -26. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -14. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -9. -15. -21. -25. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 114.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 140.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.1 81.4 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.4% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 0.4% 9.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##