* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 10/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 20 19 18 19 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 20 19 18 19 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 12 15 16 21 28 34 43 46 44 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 5 3 0 0 2 4 6 7 10 6 SHEAR DIR 284 278 276 265 256 257 243 264 253 276 288 301 292 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 148 148 149 149 151 152 152 149 144 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 62 62 59 57 58 58 59 53 49 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 8 15 17 16 23 31 35 15 -16 -41 -55 200 MB DIV 21 22 21 10 27 37 44 31 25 5 -14 -47 -36 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1257 1218 1188 1151 1120 1057 996 952 899 814 716 672 669 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.2 15.1 16.1 17.3 18.3 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.3 113.1 112.6 112.2 112.1 112.3 112.9 113.4 114.2 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 4 5 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 25 27 27 27 25 23 20 16 12 9 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -9. -16. -22. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -13. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 113.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 10/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 75.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.54 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 13.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 21.6% 13.6% 6.6% 3.4% 10.8% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% Consensus: 1.7% 8.3% 4.9% 2.3% 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 10/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##