* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 37 39 41 44 47 40 34 29 26 17 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 37 39 41 44 47 40 32 32 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 33 33 32 29 25 28 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 13 10 10 16 9 11 6 19 29 34 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -2 2 0 -2 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 59 64 74 88 91 98 116 154 226 198 227 227 253 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 28.9 28.3 27.0 26.0 24.6 29.6 22.0 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 163 162 161 155 148 134 124 110 163 85 65 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 3 2 5 0 700-500 MB RH 71 74 75 78 80 78 67 59 52 47 38 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 12 12 9 9 10 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 39 45 55 52 68 48 58 34 19 -2 -36 -5 200 MB DIV 110 113 142 119 130 89 12 52 27 36 2 7 -12 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -4 -2 -2 3 -1 1 -2 2 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 429 391 358 329 322 375 206 138 74 -52 30 -278 -736 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 10 13 12 11 12 13 16 20 22 HEAT CONTENT 50 51 49 41 31 38 8 2 0 0 20 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 23. 24. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -10. -15. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -5. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 14. 17. 10. 4. -1. -4. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 105.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.88 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.58 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.91 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 69.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 30.8% 21.7% 14.3% 0.0% 18.9% 16.9% Logistic: 3.4% 14.9% 16.1% 5.2% 3.1% 19.0% 22.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 19.6% 7.5% 2.3% 0.7% 5.2% 3.4% Consensus: 4.3% 21.8% 15.1% 7.3% 1.2% 14.4% 14.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##