* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 37 38 41 39 33 29 21 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 38 41 39 33 29 22 23 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 25 22 19 21 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 21 14 9 14 23 18 13 18 27 33 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -4 0 0 1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 59 56 62 81 80 98 111 120 184 200 209 224 232 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.1 28.7 27.9 25.8 22.2 20.8 25.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 162 162 156 152 145 123 85 70 118 83 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -51.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 6 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 78 80 81 77 66 54 46 38 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 12 9 10 9 6 6 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 36 54 61 74 72 60 47 30 22 7 4 200 MB DIV 124 103 103 148 120 101 59 46 61 31 23 5 22 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -4 -3 1 5 -3 1 0 3 3 -1 LAND (KM) 444 430 417 376 327 359 366 203 87 14 42 -67 -245 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 5 8 9 10 11 14 15 13 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 43 40 33 20 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 19. 23. 24. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. -4. -2. -4. -8. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 11. 9. 3. -1. -9. -15. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 105.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.53 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.46 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.89 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 23.9% 17.2% 11.7% 0.0% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 3.5% 3.3% 0.6% 0.3% 5.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 12.2% 4.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.9% 1.8% Consensus: 2.0% 13.2% 8.3% 4.5% 0.2% 7.4% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##