* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 51 53 54 48 34 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 45 51 53 54 48 34 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 34 31 26 20 16 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 26 19 16 12 13 20 15 17 14 20 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 -1 2 0 -1 0 2 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 65 67 69 71 88 104 107 115 123 133 187 225 227 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.1 26.9 24.2 21.1 22.1 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 158 156 157 155 153 146 134 107 75 84 78 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -51.3 -52.2 -51.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 5 4 2 1 1 1 0 3 700-500 MB RH 76 79 78 78 80 81 78 68 59 50 43 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 13 12 13 12 8 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 50 72 74 69 82 61 59 31 26 27 13 200 MB DIV 130 114 91 126 169 120 128 14 49 17 8 9 15 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -4 -5 -4 1 0 -2 0 -3 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 450 465 468 458 453 472 456 338 316 248 125 -20 -170 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 8 6 4 6 9 10 11 14 17 17 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 36 32 27 18 11 7 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 176 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. -4. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 21. 23. 24. 18. 4. -9. -17. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 105.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 4.8% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.4% 5.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.7% 1.5% Consensus: 0.1% 13.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 7.5% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##