* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 46 54 59 59 53 45 37 30 22 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 46 54 59 59 53 45 37 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 42 39 34 28 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 19 11 12 15 18 18 18 18 24 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 -4 0 0 2 2 3 0 2 -6 SHEAR DIR 52 51 63 91 104 132 138 125 138 156 179 221 233 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.0 28.6 27.3 25.0 21.7 21.4 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 170 167 166 165 163 160 154 152 139 114 80 76 92 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 6 6 3 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 78 77 81 79 75 64 51 43 35 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 58 62 68 79 84 79 73 72 43 36 13 14 200 MB DIV 114 131 113 94 97 131 95 49 15 50 25 11 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 1 6 1 0 0 1 1 -3 3 LAND (KM) 255 254 261 279 285 307 374 345 246 153 33 -12 -63 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 7 7 7 6 7 9 13 15 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 39 38 37 34 27 19 8 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 286 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 19. 24. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 24. 29. 29. 23. 15. 7. 0. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 103.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.92 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.51 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.83 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 22.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 32.8% 22.2% 14.8% 0.0% 23.9% 18.3% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 39.4% 19.5% 3.6% 1.7% 12.2% 11.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##