* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 45 53 58 61 58 53 46 41 34 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 45 53 58 61 58 47 38 36 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 47 47 43 39 31 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 16 12 5 9 19 17 13 18 24 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 0 3 3 -1 -1 0 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 50 47 48 51 63 140 169 165 178 184 197 224 239 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.0 28.2 27.5 27.3 29.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 172 170 170 169 168 163 158 154 147 141 139 163 126 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -51.6 -52.1 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 8 9 6 6 3 3 1 4 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 79 80 79 77 74 72 69 61 49 38 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 51 59 72 81 91 85 100 64 65 41 33 28 200 MB DIV 97 104 113 116 84 92 96 93 38 36 16 25 3 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -4 0 3 18 4 -2 0 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 198 208 193 186 192 218 272 223 75 -7 -43 49 -90 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 8 8 8 10 11 9 8 11 15 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 38 34 32 26 18 12 5 9 15 24 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 300 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 23. 28. 31. 29. 23. 16. 11. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 101.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.50 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.22 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.78 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 13.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 35.9% 23.4% 15.7% 0.0% 31.1% 29.5% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 35.9% 20.2% 3.9% 2.2% 17.2% 34.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##