* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 51 56 58 56 53 51 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 51 56 58 56 53 51 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 34 37 37 35 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 28 23 16 16 5 7 7 8 7 13 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 1 2 4 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 42 39 44 41 32 31 133 175 152 179 206 205 221 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.4 29.9 29.0 28.1 26.8 26.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 168 168 170 170 169 165 156 146 132 131 163 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 9 7 9 8 7 4 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 81 81 79 81 79 76 70 60 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 42 36 44 58 89 103 82 72 55 46 32 11 200 MB DIV 129 138 120 122 116 89 129 94 82 31 24 36 30 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -2 -5 -4 -3 5 -3 -3 -4 1 0 LAND (KM) 188 181 174 156 139 115 145 184 323 129 60 20 17 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 7 9 9 11 13 13 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 37 37 36 35 31 30 30 14 6 10 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 26. 31. 33. 31. 28. 26. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 99.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.99 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -0.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 8.5% 4.4% 2.4% 1.3% 19.0% 40.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.7% 7.9% 1.2% 0.6% 2.2% 3.3% Consensus: 0.2% 6.8% 4.1% 1.2% 0.7% 7.1% 14.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/03/16 06 UTC ##