* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 52 58 61 61 60 58 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 52 58 61 61 60 58 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 36 38 40 40 40 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 28 26 19 13 4 4 13 10 8 8 13 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 45 47 47 51 52 46 153 176 170 198 194 215 217 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.5 30.2 29.7 28.9 27.2 25.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 168 169 170 171 170 168 163 155 137 123 109 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 9 7 11 7 7 3 3 1 3 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 82 82 81 79 77 76 72 66 55 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 36 31 46 82 100 95 92 35 47 37 16 200 MB DIV 121 131 148 131 127 72 103 91 86 29 36 27 24 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 8 -3 -4 -6 -11 0 LAND (KM) 206 166 140 120 100 70 43 79 200 150 78 51 -18 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 10 10 11 11 13 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 37 33 31 28 30 33 22 9 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 27. 33. 36. 36. 35. 33. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 97.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.98 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -7.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.36 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.5% 5.0% 1.9% 1.0% 21.0% 59.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 19.5% 8.1% 1.5% 0.4% 5.0% 4.6% Consensus: 0.3% 9.0% 4.4% 1.1% 0.5% 8.7% 21.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##