* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 53 58 61 61 59 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 45 53 58 61 61 59 56 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 33 36 40 43 45 45 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 30 26 21 16 4 12 9 14 12 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 0 -1 0 1 2 0 -2 0 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 50 48 54 56 57 55 61 174 161 164 192 197 212 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.3 27.6 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 167 166 168 172 171 168 165 160 142 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 5 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 83 85 85 84 83 84 79 81 79 76 68 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 28 37 36 29 66 87 115 99 77 59 44 17 200 MB DIV 105 123 144 147 137 108 77 88 68 64 20 35 31 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 -4 -4 -7 -4 6 -1 -1 -4 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 300 244 197 164 147 92 5 24 105 272 119 41 -1 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 8 8 11 11 9 10 14 14 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 40 46 41 36 31 25 22 32 17 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 31. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 28. 33. 36. 36. 34. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 96.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -11.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.26 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.7% 9.2% 31.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 32.5% 16.7% 2.4% 0.7% 10.9% 27.7% Consensus: 0.5% 13.0% 6.7% 1.3% 0.5% 6.7% 19.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##