* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 58 64 66 71 72 71 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 58 64 46 40 41 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 41 45 38 35 40 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 28 28 28 26 19 16 6 4 9 4 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 0 -2 0 1 0 1 -1 -5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 59 53 55 53 42 39 40 88 143 190 145 214 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 163 164 165 166 168 172 171 169 164 162 148 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -53.0 -51.7 -52.2 -51.4 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 6 8 7 11 8 10 4 6 3 700-500 MB RH 83 81 83 83 83 80 82 82 81 78 76 69 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 13 13 10 12 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 12 11 15 16 16 26 41 75 77 90 63 39 19 200 MB DIV 108 118 137 141 148 120 99 87 89 76 33 24 22 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 -3 -2 -3 -5 -6 -7 -1 1 -4 3 LAND (KM) 408 372 322 293 262 214 152 45 -68 38 150 37 -39 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.4 15.4 17.0 19.0 21.1 22.8 24.4 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.6 96.4 97.3 98.0 99.2 100.1 101.3 103.2 105.8 108.0 109.9 111.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 9 7 7 8 11 16 15 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 18 24 39 48 44 34 28 59 40 29 19 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 7. 3. 6. 6. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 33. 39. 41. 46. 47. 46. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 95.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -4.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.32 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 5.3% 4.9% 1.3% 0.7% 10.7% 18.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 27.3% 19.7% 3.1% 1.7% 16.7% 21.8% Consensus: 1.0% 10.9% 8.2% 1.5% 0.8% 9.2% 13.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/02/16 12 UTC ## ##