* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 27 29 35 43 50 57 60 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 27 29 35 43 50 57 60 61 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 24 26 31 35 40 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 31 28 28 31 25 17 9 11 8 11 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 2 1 -3 1 2 -2 0 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 52 52 58 52 54 58 55 59 105 140 144 144 152 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.5 30.2 29.8 29.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 160 162 164 166 169 171 170 168 164 157 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 85 83 80 81 82 80 81 82 82 81 79 74 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 7 11 12 15 20 44 61 88 88 81 29 20 200 MB DIV 112 121 131 137 152 128 109 64 80 82 69 25 47 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -6 -7 -3 -4 -6 -5 1 -4 -4 -11 LAND (KM) 445 473 433 394 361 269 180 137 110 122 184 190 21 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 13 24 40 48 35 34 32 31 23 13 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. -1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 15. 23. 30. 37. 40. 41. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 94.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.97 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.4% 4.5% 10.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.9% 3.1% 0.6% 0.3% 4.4% 3.2% Consensus: 0.7% 3.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 3.0% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##