* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 29 34 42 48 55 59 62 63 62 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 29 34 42 48 55 59 62 63 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 30 33 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 28 23 23 27 21 19 11 8 10 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 3 3 4 0 -1 0 2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 56 54 62 48 50 42 45 58 47 93 132 142 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.5 29.9 29.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 160 161 163 166 167 170 172 166 156 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -52.2 -53.3 -52.3 -53.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 6 8 6 10 7 8 4 4 700-500 MB RH 83 84 82 80 82 83 82 82 81 84 83 77 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 7 7 8 9 18 35 53 77 81 42 35 200 MB DIV 110 117 118 116 121 127 116 97 96 79 78 46 32 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -1 -4 -3 -3 -8 -8 -2 0 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 434 446 462 414 366 293 207 165 150 137 199 326 128 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 10 14 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 16 16 19 43 48 36 35 31 30 14 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. -14. -13. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 28. 35. 39. 42. 43. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 94.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -2.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/02/16 00 UTC ## ##