* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 28 33 39 44 54 53 60 63 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 28 33 39 44 54 47 35 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 25 29 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 33 29 26 32 27 21 14 5 3 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 2 2 3 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 70 60 58 55 57 58 58 46 50 98 36 192 192 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.3 30.2 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 159 160 161 161 165 169 173 171 170 174 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 79 82 82 81 79 82 80 82 81 82 81 76 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 9 10 11 10 13 8 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 4 3 1 9 6 27 47 87 81 81 39 200 MB DIV 87 117 120 110 121 145 105 131 82 66 64 42 36 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 -6 -9 -5 -3 6 1 LAND (KM) 426 453 486 467 449 416 355 270 140 -8 -122 26 37 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 12.2 12.9 13.8 15.3 17.3 19.6 22.0 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.6 95.3 96.0 96.8 98.0 98.8 99.1 99.6 100.8 103.1 105.9 108.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 7 6 4 7 9 14 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 22 15 11 11 14 29 43 49 33 58 59 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -18. -17. -15. -11. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 5. 9. 2. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 19. 24. 34. 33. 40. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 94.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 1.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/01/16 18 UTC ## ##