* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 09/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 36 43 52 60 63 64 71 76 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 27 36 43 52 60 63 64 56 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 32 31 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 25 28 28 25 24 26 27 25 20 15 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 6 5 3 2 1 -2 1 3 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 80 74 67 65 64 56 57 58 59 39 78 81 132 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.6 30.4 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 161 163 163 165 162 160 159 165 173 172 169 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -53.4 -52.5 -53.1 -52.0 -52.7 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 11 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 80 83 81 81 80 77 77 79 83 81 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 9 9 11 13 13 12 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 13 18 12 16 15 19 29 46 68 90 73 200 MB DIV 64 68 98 101 107 130 114 112 102 98 93 76 46 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -6 -4 -4 -3 -9 -6 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 328 331 343 392 368 354 399 453 457 329 133 -22 145 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.0 13.0 13.0 14.0 16.2 18.8 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.3 94.0 94.9 95.9 98.2 100.2 101.4 101.5 100.9 101.5 103.6 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 8 10 11 11 8 3 2 9 14 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 39 44 43 25 19 43 35 33 33 38 34 57 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -20. -17. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 11. 8. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 16. 23. 32. 40. 43. 44. 51. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 93.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 09/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 3.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.08 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.5% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 4.7% Consensus: 0.3% 2.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 09/01/16 12 UTC ## ##