* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 07/21/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 58 64 68 69 69 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 39 49 58 64 68 69 69 68 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 48 53 57 60 62 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 9 10 8 5 5 3 5 0 0 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 75 77 77 83 93 111 133 133 167 261 320 350 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.7 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 154 151 150 150 143 140 144 145 143 140 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 74 69 66 65 63 63 60 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 30 26 22 20 15 16 22 40 49 50 47 41 24 200 MB DIV 39 40 55 52 58 61 47 36 48 42 25 16 36 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 1 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1380 1452 1501 1501 1519 1588 1703 1878 2079 2284 2200 2008 1958 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.5 115.6 116.7 117.9 120.3 122.9 125.9 129.0 132.0 134.7 136.6 137.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 14 12 6 1 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 25 25 23 21 32 14 13 23 22 26 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 33. 39. 43. 44. 44. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 113.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 07/21/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.41 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.38 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.3% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 11.0% 10.2% 2.4% 1.2% 13.1% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.5% 4.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 9.3% Consensus: 0.9% 15.9% 10.8% 1.2% 0.5% 4.4% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 07/21/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##