* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 07/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 43 52 62 69 72 75 75 77 77 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 43 52 62 69 72 75 75 77 77 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 37 43 50 57 62 67 70 75 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 9 9 7 6 7 3 6 4 0 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -6 -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 71 96 94 104 109 127 127 131 130 138 56 9 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.2 28.4 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 153 148 151 145 146 149 150 147 142 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 75 75 70 67 65 63 62 63 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 27 23 22 14 26 34 52 51 49 42 38 200 MB DIV 43 34 37 48 50 58 44 32 60 59 39 27 50 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -1 -1 0 3 4 2 0 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1306 1355 1397 1429 1448 1537 1681 1917 2195 2378 2050 1804 1639 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.6 12.6 13.3 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.5 13.2 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.3 114.4 115.6 116.8 119.7 122.7 126.2 129.8 133.3 136.6 139.2 140.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 15 16 18 17 17 14 11 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 21 22 24 20 29 17 14 26 28 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 27. 37. 44. 47. 50. 50. 52. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 112.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 07/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.31 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.26 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 21.3% 19.1% 8.3% 4.4% 24.5% 42.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 22.8% 9.4% 1.9% 1.0% 6.0% 21.0% Consensus: 2.9% 23.3% 15.4% 3.4% 1.8% 10.2% 21.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 07/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##