* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 07/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 59 63 65 66 66 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 59 63 65 66 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 32 36 41 45 47 48 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 12 10 9 8 5 5 6 9 9 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 -5 -3 -2 0 -4 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 54 60 86 104 110 105 114 142 181 214 218 227 163 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.6 27.3 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 149 147 145 145 142 136 133 140 142 139 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 74 74 73 68 65 61 61 58 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 33 27 22 23 20 1 16 24 38 49 44 47 44 200 MB DIV 47 42 45 52 74 63 62 34 42 50 26 34 43 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 2 0 0 1 4 4 3 3 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 1222 1231 1225 1232 1249 1293 1379 1529 1741 1981 2270 1927 1637 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.3 10.9 11.6 12.7 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.6 15.9 15.5 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 110.8 111.5 112.4 113.4 115.9 118.9 122.0 125.4 129.0 132.9 137.1 140.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 10 11 13 15 15 16 17 18 20 19 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 25 20 15 22 23 8 7 8 19 21 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 34. 38. 40. 41. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 110.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 07/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.6% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% 3.5% 4.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 2.0% Consensus: 0.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 07/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##