* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 07/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 28 36 43 50 57 59 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 28 36 43 50 57 59 62 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 33 37 40 42 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 11 12 8 8 6 6 7 5 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 56 59 63 91 105 111 105 147 177 190 203 167 138 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.6 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.8 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 150 150 148 142 147 143 140 137 146 147 146 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 76 74 73 68 65 61 60 59 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 10 11 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 39 32 27 24 24 13 8 30 33 54 47 50 48 200 MB DIV 51 49 44 48 52 73 64 46 40 41 51 46 38 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 3 6 4 0 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1181 1181 1186 1192 1206 1266 1334 1491 1739 2037 2338 1955 1736 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 10.1 10.6 11.2 12.5 13.6 14.4 14.8 15.0 14.9 14.1 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.8 110.5 111.4 112.4 114.9 118.0 121.3 125.1 129.1 133.3 137.3 140.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 9 11 13 15 16 17 19 20 20 18 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 27 23 18 16 23 11 10 12 21 23 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 8. 16. 23. 30. 37. 39. 42. 43. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.5 109.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 07/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.13 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 7.5% 4.5% 0.8% 0.3% 5.0% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 4.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 07/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##