* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 05/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 32 32 30 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 32 32 30 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 26 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 10 13 18 23 16 23 31 31 37 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 1 2 4 4 4 6 5 8 7 16 SHEAR DIR 261 278 264 244 244 265 264 251 226 243 264 272 248 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 151 149 145 142 142 139 134 130 128 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 63 60 59 58 56 52 57 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -53 -68 -76 -84 -88 -92 -87 -62 -40 -17 -9 2 200 MB DIV 159 122 82 77 70 14 25 30 32 36 13 13 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1581 1591 1599 1620 1644 1725 1834 1944 2042 2119 2147 2113 2015 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.1 117.8 118.5 119.2 120.8 122.6 124.4 126.1 127.5 128.3 128.5 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 6 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 34 31 24 17 26 24 12 11 7 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 29.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -21. -23. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -5. -11. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 116.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 05/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 87.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 20.0% 55.7% 59.0% 41.8% 34.7% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 6.0% 15.6% 8.3% 2.0% 0.5% 10.5% 3.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 05/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##