* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 05/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 32 33 33 31 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 32 33 33 31 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 8 8 16 23 20 18 27 33 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 2 2 2 3 2 3 4 5 7 7 SHEAR DIR 273 266 275 258 235 255 267 270 228 228 245 271 271 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 152 150 145 142 142 141 138 133 130 129 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 68 66 62 59 59 56 55 54 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -39 -52 -66 -77 -90 -91 -86 -79 -59 -35 -30 -14 200 MB DIV 172 146 111 84 89 15 1 27 21 22 27 10 5 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1573 1581 1587 1596 1613 1668 1766 1879 1971 2057 2080 2065 2028 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.7 117.4 118.1 118.7 120.1 121.6 123.3 124.9 126.3 127.1 127.3 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 35 34 28 16 17 31 18 12 12 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 116.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 05/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 4.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 6.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.44 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.87 7.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.90 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 74.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.67 -1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 4.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 56.7% 30.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 41.4% 78.9% 82.3% 62.8% 56.5% 80.1% 45.5% Bayesian: 31.3% 19.0% 10.8% 2.8% 0.7% 10.8% 3.1% Consensus: 24.2% 51.6% 41.3% 21.9% 19.1% 30.3% 16.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 05/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##