* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902016 05/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 25 26 26 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 25 26 26 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 8 8 13 20 24 15 24 31 35 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 4 3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 288 273 264 266 254 239 267 268 252 225 240 265 275 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 154 151 147 143 142 143 140 135 131 129 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 71 68 64 59 59 58 57 54 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -26 -37 -52 -66 -86 -94 -90 -86 -69 -48 -27 -21 200 MB DIV 162 171 143 108 83 61 2 16 25 26 37 14 9 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -1 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1569 1582 1586 1593 1604 1665 1745 1862 1974 2089 2150 2167 2146 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.3 117.0 117.7 118.4 119.8 121.2 122.9 124.7 126.4 127.5 128.1 128.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 35 35 31 19 17 30 22 13 13 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 115.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 05/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 50.1% 49.5% 32.2% 23.4% 51.3% 41.2% Bayesian: 2.0% 5.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 1.0% Consensus: 3.7% 18.4% 17.1% 10.9% 7.9% 17.4% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 05/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##