* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212019 11/18/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 15 15 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 3 4 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 217 215 223 230 213 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 142 146 151 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 66 66 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -41 -39 -38 -43 -41 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 26 33 32 26 17 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 1 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 701 719 738 767 798 879 923 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.3 106.7 107.3 107.9 109.1 110.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 9 12 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.4 105.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/18/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 4.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 1.6% 1.7% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 2.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212019 TWENTYONE 11/18/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##