* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP202019 11/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 49 46 41 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 49 46 41 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 51 49 42 33 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 18 22 35 46 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 6 8 1 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 261 246 250 233 226 225 229 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 26.9 27.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 148 146 142 133 136 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 60 60 58 59 59 53 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 15 14 14 13 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 35 17 10 3 13 21 26 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 40 58 55 47 39 51 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 2 6 21 25 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 706 683 671 653 639 435 201 -12 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.0 19.0 21.1 23.1 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.5 109.9 110.2 110.6 110.4 109.8 110.0 110.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 8 9 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 12 10 8 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -13. -23. -29. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -24. -31. -36. -39. -40. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 109.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202019 RAYMOND 11/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.19 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 22.3% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 8.2% 4.9% 3.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 10.7% 8.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 RAYMOND 11/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##