* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 11/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 25 26 25 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 25 26 25 26 22 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 8 9 9 20 31 45 53 53 44 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 258 265 257 248 251 225 239 226 227 230 237 249 260 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.6 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 148 150 153 151 148 141 143 143 146 143 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 5 2 5 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 63 63 67 69 71 71 58 47 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 12 13 15 13 14 12 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 31 16 5 6 14 25 -4 0 -2 -32 -39 -19 -16 200 MB DIV 75 46 37 41 33 61 68 51 58 39 -22 -15 -31 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 866 825 796 771 747 699 614 474 280 151 137 75 0 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.1 14.1 15.7 18.1 20.6 22.3 23.0 23.1 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 107.4 107.4 107.6 107.8 108.6 109.3 109.5 108.9 108.4 108.1 107.3 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 7 10 13 11 6 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 14 16 16 13 11 11 10 13 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -7. -16. -26. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -3. -10. -20. -24. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 107.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 11/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.51 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 28.3% 11.9% 7.2% 1.2% 9.7% 6.2% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 17.3% 10.3% 2.4% 0.4% 9.2% 8.3% 2.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 11/14/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##