* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 11/14/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 19 19 21 22 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 19 19 21 22 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 13 10 10 9 14 28 38 51 56 48 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 5 2 0 2 0 1 -1 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 239 250 250 236 235 222 235 229 222 226 228 241 249 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 152 152 152 150 149 143 134 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.7 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 2 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 61 60 61 66 66 69 63 51 42 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 12 11 12 13 14 13 13 11 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 16 11 13 28 26 6 24 -8 -21 -18 -5 200 MB DIV 75 73 44 43 41 38 81 46 62 50 21 -8 -20 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 4 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 893 843 818 794 776 751 730 652 401 150 30 29 97 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.1 15.0 16.8 19.3 21.6 22.9 23.6 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 108.6 108.5 108.6 108.8 109.4 110.1 110.6 110.3 109.6 109.5 109.3 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 3 4 5 7 11 13 10 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 22 23 18 14 11 9 3 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -13. -23. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -9. -19. -25. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 109.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 11/14/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.44 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.90 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.1% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 10.9% 4.4% 2.3% 0.2% 2.8% 0.9% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 10.7% 5.6% 0.8% 0.1% 6.1% 6.2% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 11/14/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##