* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 11/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 20 26 30 37 35 35 29 24 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 20 26 30 37 35 35 29 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 19 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 14 11 5 3 8 16 28 34 45 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 6 4 5 0 0 0 -1 4 4 10 2 SHEAR DIR 214 225 237 247 254 209 320 238 229 224 224 231 245 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 140 139 144 147 152 152 151 150 149 152 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 68 67 66 67 72 73 75 64 52 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 9 13 12 14 12 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 13 13 15 13 18 15 0 8 -20 -2 -30 200 MB DIV 62 78 80 68 47 41 38 80 52 63 79 24 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 14 6 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1046 997 974 955 955 917 894 843 745 558 331 176 121 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.2 14.6 16.9 19.2 19.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 109.5 109.1 108.8 108.8 108.9 109.2 109.6 109.9 109.6 108.6 107.3 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 1 1 3 3 6 10 12 10 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 11 11 16 23 35 15 13 27 33 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 6. 6. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. 1. 5. 12. 10. 10. 4. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 110.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 11/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.40 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.53 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 15.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 5.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1% 2.7% 2.2% 8.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.8% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 5.6% 6.0% 2.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 11/13/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##