* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 09/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 36 34 32 31 32 32 32 32 35 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 36 34 32 31 32 32 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 37 36 33 30 28 26 24 21 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 33 33 35 29 33 36 41 29 31 21 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -2 2 -3 -5 2 10 5 3 4 3 SHEAR DIR 117 119 115 114 107 89 79 71 46 56 75 87 83 SST (C) 27.9 28.4 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.5 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.4 29.0 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 148 151 150 151 146 148 159 163 162 157 154 160 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 4 4 4 5 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 66 70 70 73 74 77 76 75 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -5 6 22 32 54 51 30 41 32 54 28 53 200 MB DIV 80 46 40 60 100 95 125 173 92 12 2 -2 4 700-850 TADV -6 -5 4 10 8 5 0 -22 -8 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 582 527 521 568 641 737 733 573 312 100 -14 -74 -43 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.6 16.0 15.2 14.3 13.0 12.5 13.3 15.3 17.1 18.2 19.5 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 109.0 108.4 108.1 107.9 107.5 106.6 105.0 103.6 102.8 102.9 103.8 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 5 7 11 12 7 6 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 16 15 16 16 21 38 30 25 20 19 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -23. -27. -29. -29. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 109.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 09/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 09/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##