* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 09/27/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 26 28 28 29 30 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 26 28 28 29 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 26 31 33 22 32 41 37 30 23 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -5 -4 -1 -5 -5 3 10 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 126 130 128 126 126 97 96 83 72 49 63 79 100 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.7 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 139 146 149 147 147 146 160 163 162 162 161 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -51.8 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 7 5 4 4 5 5 8 6 10 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 63 65 70 72 74 73 73 71 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -8 -6 0 22 36 61 56 16 33 32 34 39 200 MB DIV 98 81 43 36 45 78 102 149 166 54 7 -6 31 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 3 7 3 9 -3 -16 -2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 617 557 527 530 560 678 774 753 563 325 192 136 83 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.4 16.8 16.0 14.4 13.2 12.7 13.7 15.4 16.5 17.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 110.1 109.6 109.2 108.9 108.7 108.4 107.3 105.6 104.2 103.7 103.9 104.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 8 8 8 6 7 11 9 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 7 11 13 13 17 16 36 33 29 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -20. -25. -28. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.4 110.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 09/27/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 09/27/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##