* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 09/26/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 27 27 26 26 26 28 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 27 27 26 26 26 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 16 19 21 22 30 24 30 39 36 34 27 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 -4 8 10 3 1 SHEAR DIR 108 134 137 137 137 133 115 105 92 76 64 77 91 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.7 29.6 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 143 142 141 144 146 146 152 161 160 161 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 5 6 5 4 3 4 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 59 59 61 68 72 75 75 74 73 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -10 -6 -9 24 28 66 69 34 21 36 22 200 MB DIV 66 82 80 76 49 5 29 81 146 136 44 16 2 700-850 TADV -13 -8 -7 -3 -1 4 4 9 6 -14 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 772 675 587 548 556 626 716 795 820 685 451 302 241 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.3 18.0 18.2 18.0 16.8 15.2 13.9 13.0 13.3 14.7 15.8 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 112.5 112.1 111.6 111.1 110.3 110.1 109.8 108.9 107.1 105.3 104.5 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 6 8 8 7 7 11 10 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 10 9 8 11 16 25 18 33 34 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -6. -14. -20. -25. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.4 112.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 09/26/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.10 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.55 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.9% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 09/26/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##