* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 09/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 29 30 32 33 32 31 29 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 29 30 32 33 32 31 29 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 11 13 20 25 34 31 40 39 44 36 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -7 -5 -1 -5 -5 2 10 3 SHEAR DIR 105 107 104 122 134 134 125 118 96 83 68 62 61 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.1 29.2 29.8 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 147 147 145 142 141 143 145 144 157 163 163 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -51.9 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 5 4 3 4 5 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 64 60 57 59 66 73 76 77 79 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -20 -24 -24 -13 -10 23 34 70 59 28 29 37 200 MB DIV 97 67 53 59 51 36 14 52 92 120 113 37 28 700-850 TADV -8 -12 -14 -14 -12 0 5 10 10 4 -14 -5 -1 LAND (KM) 962 870 765 654 573 551 612 707 788 783 604 360 224 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.1 18.0 16.6 14.8 13.4 12.7 13.5 15.1 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 112.7 112.7 112.5 112.0 110.8 110.0 109.6 109.0 107.8 106.0 104.3 103.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 7 7 9 8 7 7 12 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 14 12 11 10 8 8 10 19 15 35 36 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -12. -18. -24. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 112.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 09/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.50 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.8% 4.0% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 2.6% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 9.7% 5.7% 0.4% 0.3% 4.9% 0.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 09/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##