* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 06/25/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 32 39 42 40 33 26 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 32 39 42 40 33 26 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 10 7 3 8 16 18 23 25 33 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 33 35 63 98 97 143 165 204 208 224 233 244 250 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.2 29.5 28.3 26.8 26.5 24.9 23.9 23.4 22.8 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 166 168 161 149 133 130 113 101 96 90 72 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 69 64 61 59 56 52 48 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 11 10 11 9 7 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 34 28 17 -10 -29 -40 -24 -22 -33 -40 -50 200 MB DIV 62 20 24 28 43 33 4 10 27 20 3 13 7 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 -3 -8 3 5 11 12 13 12 16 6 LAND (KM) 419 422 424 450 497 612 709 786 855 915 948 880 801 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.6 19.6 20.9 22.7 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.7 104.8 105.8 107.0 109.6 112.3 115.0 117.2 119.2 120.6 121.7 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 14 13 12 12 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 35 27 23 17 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 19. 22. 20. 13. 6. -2. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 102.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 06/25/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 06/25/19 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING