* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 06/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 36 45 51 52 48 44 41 36 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 36 45 51 52 48 44 41 36 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 30 30 28 25 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 1 3 4 4 7 12 16 16 18 18 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 4 -3 SHEAR DIR 67 113 98 78 85 121 116 135 181 197 217 222 250 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.8 30.1 28.5 28.1 27.8 26.8 25.9 24.8 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 161 163 167 151 147 144 133 123 111 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 4 5 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 83 81 79 77 72 70 64 64 60 59 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 49 65 57 47 33 9 -9 -5 -13 -8 -4 -29 200 MB DIV 80 94 100 86 52 38 43 42 23 23 14 24 8 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 1 6 4 1 8 14 LAND (KM) 419 423 442 470 483 557 693 889 999 1157 1253 1315 1323 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.8 18.0 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 101.4 102.3 103.3 104.3 106.5 109.3 112.3 115.4 118.4 120.8 122.7 124.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 12 15 15 15 13 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 39 53 56 41 25 11 14 7 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 16. 25. 31. 32. 28. 24. 21. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 100.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 06/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.96 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 45.0% 30.9% 16.5% 4.3% 20.2% 5.5% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.6% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 16.5% 10.9% 5.7% 1.6% 6.8% 1.9% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 06/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##