* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 06/24/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 31 36 45 54 60 67 64 58 56 51 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 31 36 45 54 60 67 64 58 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 33 36 36 34 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 10 10 11 8 3 6 6 10 15 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 6 2 0 1 -1 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 33 39 42 58 57 34 24 357 105 189 200 210 214 SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.5 27.9 27.7 26.0 25.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 165 165 165 167 162 145 143 125 114 101 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 86 86 84 83 82 77 73 67 65 60 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 12 13 13 13 15 13 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 57 46 56 47 57 63 51 24 1 -22 -12 -5 -1 200 MB DIV 103 116 95 105 112 57 48 40 51 -4 -4 11 19 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 -8 -8 4 8 5 15 LAND (KM) 464 453 438 436 437 431 429 518 697 801 960 1067 1175 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.7 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.2 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 98.2 98.8 99.4 100.1 100.8 102.5 104.7 107.4 110.6 113.9 117.1 119.8 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 10 12 15 16 16 15 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 33 32 36 51 27 15 7 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 4. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 8. 6. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 34. 40. 47. 44. 38. 36. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 98.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 06/24/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.96 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -7.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 19.9% 7.2% 3.7% 0.9% 17.5% 36.0% 23.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% Consensus: 0.4% 7.6% 2.8% 1.4% 0.3% 6.0% 12.2% 8.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 06/24/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##