* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932019 06/23/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 35 42 55 66 72 78 76 76 71 68 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 35 42 55 66 72 78 76 76 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 36 41 45 48 49 48 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 9 8 10 8 5 3 7 13 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 3 4 2 3 1 -1 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 31 43 53 47 46 37 38 34 71 155 195 184 199 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 30.1 28.4 27.5 27.2 26.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 165 164 164 165 163 168 151 141 138 125 114 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 85 84 86 84 83 80 76 71 67 62 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 11 13 15 16 15 17 16 19 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 44 64 59 59 48 62 59 28 11 -7 -10 0 11 200 MB DIV 98 123 133 113 101 102 57 30 52 38 28 11 35 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 1 -6 -4 -1 4 6 5 LAND (KM) 476 474 464 463 471 475 457 511 629 804 906 1040 1160 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 13.0 14.0 14.6 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.2 98.8 99.5 100.2 101.9 103.8 106.2 109.2 112.3 115.5 118.3 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 7 8 9 11 14 16 15 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 36 33 32 57 43 23 9 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 28. 32. 36. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 13. 17. 16. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 11. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 22. 35. 46. 52. 58. 56. 56. 51. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 97.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932019 INVEST 06/23/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.95 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -6.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 36.3% 17.4% 9.4% 2.5% 30.5% 44.1% 34.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.0% 5.8% 1.6% 0.1% 6.2% 9.6% 2.9% Consensus: 1.0% 14.1% 7.7% 3.7% 0.9% 12.2% 17.9% 12.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932019 INVEST 06/23/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##