* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 69 59 47 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 78 69 59 47 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 78 70 61 52 37 30 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 22 25 30 34 38 50 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 5 4 -3 -2 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 223 212 213 227 243 245 229 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.2 24.5 24.2 23.4 22.2 31.2 31.5 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 105 108 105 97 85 173 175 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 55 53 51 49 51 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 32 30 27 21 13 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 22 14 17 6 -4 10 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 62 60 36 45 49 60 70 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 9 9 8 -2 5 14 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 674 576 476 359 245 111 23 -292 -733 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.8 24.7 25.6 26.5 28.4 30.7 33.8 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.9 118.6 118.3 117.7 117.0 115.9 114.5 112.6 110.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 12 15 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 7 6 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -18. -17. -18. -21. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -20. -27. -40. -44. -47. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -32. -38. -40. -40. -39. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -16. -26. -38. -57. -67. -80. -90. -96. -99. -99.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 22.8 118.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX