* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 87 86 84 77 64 51 35 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 89 87 86 84 77 64 51 35 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 95 87 82 78 74 62 49 37 27 22 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 11 9 18 22 29 37 48 62 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 2 5 4 0 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 278 263 230 201 222 222 238 239 223 220 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.5 25.2 24.1 23.2 21.8 26.5 22.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 135 128 115 104 94 80 130 84 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 1 2 3 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 62 60 61 60 55 54 51 49 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 35 36 36 35 32 26 19 10 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 12 8 20 28 38 29 3 -21 -5 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 44 57 78 81 32 21 42 49 79 35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 1 3 4 6 10 0 -11 -11 38 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 952 907 868 814 770 628 416 230 116 -33 -255 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.3 23.1 25.1 26.9 28.7 31.0 33.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.2 118.5 118.7 118.8 118.6 117.9 117.1 116.2 115.1 113.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 6 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -22. -31. -35. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -25. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -5. -15. -29. -35. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -9. -11. -18. -31. -44. -60. -80. -92. -92. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.0 117.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 446.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX