* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 113 112 102 92 78 65 48 31 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 117 114 113 112 102 92 78 65 48 32 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 120 115 111 107 103 92 79 63 48 35 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 2 3 8 13 18 25 33 42 55 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -9 -7 -4 -1 0 4 2 2 -1 3 -8 SHEAR DIR 14 4 36 37 223 203 222 212 229 235 237 221 233 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.7 26.8 25.5 24.3 23.3 21.4 28.8 19.7 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 143 140 132 118 106 96 77 156 66 66 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 2 3 9 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 65 63 63 63 55 53 58 60 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 33 35 36 35 36 33 29 23 13 4 15 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 39 27 17 21 25 25 16 3 22 62 93 200 MB DIV 35 21 34 30 28 62 34 28 49 64 78 73 25 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -3 -2 6 2 8 6 -9 4 13 91 LAND (KM) 1014 1004 994 941 892 786 640 435 227 45 -55 -552 -999 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.4 19.1 20.9 22.8 24.8 26.8 29.2 31.9 35.8 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.7 118.0 118.2 118.4 118.7 118.4 117.8 117.0 115.7 113.8 111.0 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 8 8 9 10 10 12 15 19 24 27 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 43 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -15. -25. -36. -47. -56. -58. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 0. -5. -14. -28. -40. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -8. -18. -28. -42. -55. -72. -89.-108.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 17.0 117.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 522.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX