* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 129 130 127 125 114 100 86 70 51 31 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 129 130 127 125 114 100 86 70 51 35 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 125 127 125 120 114 101 89 72 55 40 30 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 5 4 4 11 16 24 31 37 49 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -7 -7 -8 -3 -4 2 6 -5 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 1 21 45 40 48 226 230 225 224 236 236 224 223 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.1 24.6 23.7 22.4 28.3 22.0 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 142 142 137 125 109 100 87 150 86 66 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 3 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 65 61 61 60 56 48 47 55 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 35 35 36 36 35 35 31 24 15 6 15 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 56 60 50 34 39 39 12 15 9 36 81 200 MB DIV 81 20 -7 32 43 39 21 29 31 57 68 98 46 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 0 -2 3 9 8 10 0 0 26 113 LAND (KM) 997 1010 1013 991 972 869 714 521 333 138 29 -316 -870 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.3 19.8 22.0 24.1 25.9 27.9 30.2 33.8 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.6 118.0 118.3 118.6 118.8 118.6 118.2 117.6 116.4 114.4 111.9 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 9 11 10 10 13 17 23 25 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 18 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -27. -39. -50. -59. -64. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 5. 0. -9. -21. -34. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 2. 0. -11. -25. -39. -55. -74. -94.-112.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.9 117.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 576.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.9% 4.6% 2.8% 2.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX