* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 134 136 135 131 120 106 92 75 58 34 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 125 134 136 135 131 120 106 92 75 58 34 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 125 131 130 125 118 106 95 81 65 49 34 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 4 4 2 6 11 16 26 34 41 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -5 -6 -7 -6 -4 -7 4 3 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 97 5 18 42 28 114 189 224 215 232 226 236 232 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 26.8 25.5 24.2 23.7 22.9 24.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 144 141 139 131 118 104 99 92 104 137 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.1 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 64 62 60 58 52 45 40 40 37 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 33 34 36 36 37 37 34 30 21 9 16 850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 61 68 72 64 60 64 59 21 28 11 28 200 MB DIV 89 78 0 7 41 39 67 42 4 29 41 39 29 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -3 0 -2 5 4 3 0 -19 22 -11 LAND (KM) 944 986 1023 1013 1006 945 841 719 543 356 144 -19 -144 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.9 20.7 22.5 24.3 25.8 27.2 29.4 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.1 117.7 118.2 118.6 118.9 119.2 119.2 118.8 117.8 116.3 114.8 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 7 9 9 9 9 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 9 8 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -26. -37. -48. -56. -63. -67. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -4. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 10. 13. 13. 11. 6. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. -2. -14. -30. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 11. 10. 6. -5. -19. -33. -50. -67. -91.-117.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 16.9 116.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 553.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 40.0% 13.6% 11.6% 9.8% 8.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.0% 4.6% 3.9% 3.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX